ZHANG Peng, YAN Xianghong, DU Jiaoqi, LI Ruojing
Modern Agriculture. 2026, 51(3): 21-43.
During the transition period of consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively linking up with rural revitalization,clarifying the ternary coupling relationship among the transformation of university scientific and technological achievements, new quality agricultural productivity and rural revitalization is of great significance for advancing agricultural and rural modernization. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities(directly under the central government) in China (excluding Xizang Autonomous Region, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions) from 2015 to 2023, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for the above three systems. With the entropy method adopted to calculate index weights, this study further applied the coupling coordination degree model and the Dagum Gini coefficient to conduct an empirical analysis on the coupling coordination level, dynamic evolution and driving factors of the ternary system. The results showed that: the coupling coordination degree of the ternary system in China rose steadily from 0.388 to 0.483 during the research period, presented a spatial pattern of "the eastern region taking the lead, the central region catching up and the western region lagging behind". Obvious hierarchical differentiation existed among provincial-level regions, only Jiangsu Province reached the primary coordination stage, most western provincial-level regions remained in the imbalance stage for a long time, and the number of provinces with coordinated development had increased year by year. In terms of dynamic evolution, the kernel density curve shifted rightward and maintained a unimodal distribution. The overall Gini coefficient of the ternary system′s coupling coordination level fluctuated downward. The average intra-regional Gini coefficient followed the order of western region, eastern region, central region. Inter-regional disparity constituted the dominant source of overall gaps, with the largest Gini coefficient observed between the eastern region and western region. Grey correlation analysis indicated that the rural revitalization and new quality agricultural productivity serve as core factors affecting the coupled and coordinated development of the ternary system, while the traction effect of the transformation of university scientific and technological achievements needed to be further strengthened. Provincial-level regions could be categorized into three development modes (holistic-driven mode, dual-core-driven mode, and single-point-driven mode) based on the combination of grey correlation degrees. Secondary indicators including agricultural labor materials, quality of agricultural laborers and industrial prosperity acted as the primary driving forces supporting the coupled and coordinated development of the ternary system. Accordingly, this paper puts forward targeted proposals including adopting region-specific development strategies, breaking through bottlenecks restricting the transformation of university scientific and technological achievements, implementing differentiated factor allocation strategies, and improving overall coordination as well as dynamic monitoring mechanisms, so as to provide references for coordinating regional innovation resources and empowering rural development through scientific and technological innovation from universities.
