Objective To analyze the change rule of the number of inpatients in a southern province from 2010 to 2019, and to provide scientific basis for health resource allocation, planning and development, scientific management and service improvement in the province.Methods Based on the monthly data of the inpatients in the province in 10 years, the time series analysis method was adopted to calculate the quarterly and monthly seasonal index through the moving average method to find out the seasonal variation rule of the inpatients.Results The number of inpationts in this southern province has been steadily increasing yearly for ten years.Seasonal indexes of January, February, September and October were less than 100%,and the seasonal indexes in the remaining months were greater than 100%.The seasonal indexes of the first quarter were less than 100% and those of the remaining quarters were greater than 100%.Conclusion Inpatient medical services are growing steadily year by year. It is necessary to constantly improve the capacity of inpatient admission and treatment, rationally make use of the changing characteristics of inpatient demand in "offseason" and "peak season", and formulate appropriate response measures to meet the increasing needs of the people for inpatient services.
陈龙. 南方某省2010—2019年住院人次季节变动趋势分析[J]. 中国医院统计, 2020, 27(4): 375-378.
Chen Long. Seasonal change trend analysis of the number of inpatients in a southern province from 2010 to 2019.. journal1, 2020, 27(4): 375-378.
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