Abstract:Objective To analyze the mortality level and change trend of malignant tumors in urban and rural residents in China from 2009 to 2020, and predict the cancer mortality of urban and rural residents from 2021 to 2025.Methods The relevant data of malignant tumors in urban and rural residents in the death cause monitoring data set were selected to calculate the mortality rate, standardized mortality rate and other related indicators; joinpoint software was used to analyze the time trend of mortality; the GM (1,1 ) grey prediction model was established to predict the mortality rate of malignant tumors in urban and rural residents.Results The mortality of malignant tumors was 159.00/100 000 in urban areas and 153.78/100 000 in rural areas. The standardized mortality rate was 129.77/100 000 in urban areas and 131.50/100 000 in rural areas. The gap of malignant tumor mortality between urban and rural areas was gradually narrowing, but the order of malignant tumor death was different. From 2009 to 2020, the mortality rate of malignant tumors among urban and rural residents showed an overall upward trend, and the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend. The mortality rate of urban and rural malignant tumors continued to increase from 2021 to 2025.Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer and colorectal cancer in urban residents is high, while the mortality of liver cancer, gastric cancer and colorectal cancer in rural residents is high. Targeted prevention and control measures should be implemented to reduce the cancer mortality in urban and rural areas.
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