Objective To discuss the application of exponential smoothing method in forecasting the allocation of regional health human resources.Methods  Based on the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents in a city from 2011 to 2020, SPSS 23.0 was used to establish the exponential smoothing model, Which was used to predict and evaluate the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents of the city from 2021 to 2023.Results The  R² value of the model constructed by the non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend was the largest, and the  R² value was 0.988, RMSE was 0.053, and MAPE was 1.495, which was the best fitting model.Conclusion The non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend model can better fit the regional health human resource allocation and can be used to predict the regional health human resource allocation.