Abstract：Objective To explore the association between adult waist circumference(WC) variability and incident hypertension, and to provide evidence for the health management of obesity and the early prevention of hypertension. Methods Based on the longitudinal cohort data of China health and nutrition survey from 1989 to 2011, 5 723 subjects aged 20-60 years old with more than 4 times of WC measurements before onset of hypertension were selected. The mean follow-up period was 11.6 years, during which 1 415 incident hypertension patients were observed. Four WC variability indexes were calculated, including standard deviation, coefficient of variation, range and linear slope. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the association between WC variability and incident hypertension. Results After adjusting for the covariates (including baseline waist circumference level), the association between WC variability and incident hypertension was statistically significant. The standardized OR of WC standard deviation, coefficient of variation, range and linear slope were 1.02 (95%CI: 1.01-1.03), 1.01 (95%CI: 1.00-1.03), 1.01 (95%CI: 1.00-1.03) and 1.05 (95%CI: 1.04-1.06), respectively. Compared with the reference group (Q1), the OR value for upper three quartiles (Q2、Q3、Q4) of the WC linear slope was 1.06, 1.11 and 1.14, respectively, which showed a significant linear trend (P-trend<0.05). Conclusion Rapid increase and great variability in waist circumference during early adulthood appear to be independent risk factors for hypertension, which is independent of waist circumference level.
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