1 School of Public Health, Binzhou Medical University, Yantai 264003, China;
2 School Health Section, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhifu District, Yantai 264001, China; 3 Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Section, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yantai 264003, China
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis and predict the trend of tuberculosis incidence.Methods The tuberculosis incidence data of Yantai City from 2012 to 2022 were collected and sorted out from the Tuberculosis Management Information System of the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis were analyzed; the data from 2012 to 2021 were used to establish an optimal model, the data of 2022 were used to test the model and predict the incidence of tuberculosis from 2023-2025.Results The incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai showed an overall decreasing trend from 2012 to 2022 (P<0.001); the number of incidence cases was less in January, February and October each year, and more from March to May. Longkou City had the highest incidence rate (32.79/100 000) and Fushan District had the lowest (9.28/100 000) in different districts and cities. In population distribution, the incidence rate of males was 2.86 times that of females, and the highest proportion of incidence was found in people aged 20 to under 40 years old, followed by people aged ≥60 years old; farmers were the main incidence group in occupational distribution. After modeling and fitting, ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was derived as the optimal model, and the model test results showed that the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value from January to December 2022 was 15.07%, and the predicted number of monthly incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai City from 2023 to 2025 was 57-103, 48-94, and 39-85 respectively.Conclusion The incidence of tuberculosis in different districts and cities of Yantai City varies, and men, farmers, young adults and the elderly are the key populations for the prevention and control of tuberculosis; it is predicted that the incidence of tuberculosis in Yantai City will show a decreasing trend from 2023 to 2025, which can be used as a reference for the relevant departments in the prevention and control of tuberculosis.
