Abstract:Objective To analyze and predict the number of outpatients in a hospital in the future, so as to provide data and theoretical basis for effective allocation of medical resources, formulation of medical work plan and scientific decision-making. Methods The prophet time series prediction model is adopted and the statistical data are imported to predict the number of outpatients per month in the future, and the actual data in 2019 are compared to verify the accuracy and practicability of the model. Results The seasonal variation of outpatient visits takes one year as a cycle, and the variation trend is roughly the same. The characteristics of variation with seasonal variation have obvious regularity. Conclusion The prophet algorithm based on time series is used for the prediction of hospital outpatient volume. The method is simple, intuitive and the result is relatively accurate, so it can provide the basis for hospital leaders to make medical work plans and scientific decisions.
桑泉红,徐培文. 基于时序序列模型预测医院门诊人次[J]. 中国医院统计, 2022, 29(1): 25-28.
Sang Quanhong, Xu Peiwen. Prediction of hospital outpatient visits based on time series model. journal1, 2022, 29(1): 25-28.