Abstract：Objective To find out the dynamic change rule of surgical operation volume in a hospital from 2011 to 2020 through statistical analysis, so as to provide information reference for hospital management and medical resource allocation.Methods The moving average seasonal index method was used to dynamically analyze the surgical volume data from 2011 to 2020 and establish a prediction model.Results Except for the decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of surgical operations in other years has increased to varying degrees, with a cumulative increase of 227.27% and an average growth rate of 8.56% per year in 10 years. In the second and third quarters of a year, the number of operations was more, and the seasonal index was more than 100%. The number of operations in the first and fourth quarters was small, and the seasonal index was lower than 1.Conclusion The number of surgical operations in the hospital has obvious regularity with seasonal changes. Hospital managers should reasonably allocate medical resources according to the change and development rules of surgical operations to ensure medical safety and service efficiency.
[J]. 中国医院统计, 2023, 30(3): 179-182.
Niu Wenyan, Liu Haitao, Wu Tingting. Dynamic analysis and prediction of surgical operation volume in a municipal general hospital based on seasonal index method
