Price prediction of antitumor drugs in Shandong Province based on LSTM and ARIMA models
Cao Xiaoyu1, Xu Bo2, Zhang Huifeng1, Wei Xinjiang1
1 School of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Ludong University, Yantai 264039, China;
2 Shandong Public Resources Trading Center, Jinan 250014, China
Abstract：Objective To evaluate the price level of antineoplastic drugs in Shandong Province from January 2016 to April 2021, and to scientifically predict the price trend of antineoplastic drugs.Methods Based on the purchase data of desensitized anti-tumor drugs from January 2016 to April 2021 in Shandong Province, the anti-tumor drug price index was compiled, and the ARIMA model and the LSTM model were used to predict and compare the price trend of anti-tumor drugs.Results The Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher price indices of antitumor drugs in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend, and the MSE of the ARIMA and LSTM models were 0.60% and 1.85%,respectively. The ARIMA model was more suitable for prediction than the LSTM model. ARIMA model was used to predict the price trend of antitumor drugs in the next 8 months, and the overall trend was decreasing.Conclusion Centralized drug procurement policy in Shandong Province can reduce the price of antitumor drugs to a certain extent, but the price of antitumor drugs fluctuates abnormally. Relevant departments such as medical security and health care should ensure the price of antitumor drugs in a reasonable range from the aspects of bulk purchase and national insurance negotiation.
曹晓宇，徐波，张慧凤，魏新江. 基于LSTM和ARIMA模型的山东省抗肿瘤药物价格水平预测研究[J]. 中国医院统计, 2022, 29(6): 419-423.
Cao Xiaoyu, Xu Bo, Zhang Huifeng, Wei Xinjiang. Price prediction of antitumor drugs in Shandong Province based on LSTM and ARIMA models. journal1, 2022, 29(6): 419-423.
