Abstract：Objective To construct a prediction model of diarrhea risk in patients with acute cerebral infarction (ACI) during nasal feeding. Methods A retrospective study was carried out to analyze the clinical data of nasal feeding patients with ACI in the department of intensive care unit and department of neurology from January 2016 to June 2018. The relevant data of the patients were collected. The statistical analysis of SPSS 25.0 software and R 3.6.1 software were applied to construct the nomograph prediction model and evaluate it. Results We collected data of 114 ACI patients with nasal feeding who met the inclusion criteria, of which 42 had diarrhea and 72 had no diarrhea. The use of antibiotics was a risk factor for diarrhea risk in ACI patients with nasal feeding (OR=2.643, 95%CI 1.144-6.289); the use of cellulose containing nutrient solution was a protective factor for diarrhea risk in ACI patients with nasal feeding (OR=0.293, 95%CI 0.117-0.707). Using probiotics, antibiotics and cellulose containing nutrient solution as predictive factor variables, the nomograph prediction model was established. The area under curve (AUC) calculated by ROC curve was 0.732, showing that the accuracy of the model was good. The evaluation of Calibration curve and Decision curve showed that the consistency and benefits of the model were still available. Conclusion The use of antibiotics is a risk factor for diarrhea in ACI patients with nasal feeding, and the use of cellulose containing nutrient solution is a protective factor for diarrhea in ACI patients with nasal feeding. The accuracy of the prediction model of diarrhea risk in ACI patients with nasal feeding based on the use of probiotics, antibiotics and cellulose containing nutrient solution is accurate, which has certain value for risk prediction and nursing intervention. It could be further verified by the data of multi centers and large samples.
黄欢欢，郑菊芳，余善招. 急性脑梗死鼻饲患者腹泻风险预测模型的构建[J]. 中国医院统计, 2021, 28(2): 139-142.
Huang Huanhuan, Zheng Jufang, Yu Shanzhao. . Construction of prediction model of diarrhea risk in patients with acute cerebral infarction during nasal feeding.. journal1, 2021, 28(2): 139-142.
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