某三甲医院耳鼻喉科入院人数变化趋势分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.03.008

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摘要目的通过对某院耳鼻喉科入院人数动态变化规律分析，旨在为科室精细化管理和科学调配医疗卫生资源提供参考依据。方法采用时间序列分析中的动态指标分析该院2013—2022年入院人数年度变化，采用移动平均季节指数法对各月度和季度的入院人数进行统计分析。结果该院耳鼻喉科入院人数整体呈现增长趋势，累计增长量为1 721人次，累计增长48.33%。入院人数月度高峰期在7月和8月，其中7月最高，季节指数为131.66%；低谷期在2月、6月、9月、11月和12月，其中9月最低，季节指数为79.59%。季度高峰期在第3季度，季节指数为108.92%；低谷期在第4季度，季节指数为93.27%。结论该院耳鼻喉科入院人数随月度和季度变化呈现明显的周期性变化规律，应根据其规律科学合理调配医疗卫生资源，提高医疗服务质量和服务效率。

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	张圆
	侯明华

关键词 ：入院人数, 季节指数, 变化趋势

Abstract：Objective To analyze the dynamic change of the number of admissions in the otolaryngology department of a hospital, aiming to provide a reference for the refined management of the department and the scientific allocation of medical and health resources.Methods The dynamic indicators in the time series analysis were used to analyze the annual change of the number of hospital admissions from 2013 to 2022, and the moving average seasonal index method was used to statistically analyze the number of hospital admissions in each month and quarter.Results The number of admissions to the department of otolaryngology in the hospital showed an overall growth trend, with a cumulative increase of 1 721 person-times, with a cumulative increase of 48.33%. The monthly peak period of hospital admissions was in July and August, of which July was the highest, with a seasonal index of 131.66%; and the trough period was in February, June, September, November, and December, of which September was the lowest, with a seasonal index of 79.59%. The quarterly peak was in the third quarter, with a seasonal index of 108.92%; and the trough was in the fourth quarter, with a seasonal index of 93.27%.Conclusion The number of admissions to the department of otolaryngology in the hospital shows obvious cyclical changes with monthly and quarterly changes, and medical and health resources should be scientifically and reasonably allocated according to the law to improve the quality and efficiency of medical services.

Key words： number of hospital admission seasonal index change trend

收稿日期: 2024-01-17

基金资助:郴州市第一人民医院博士科研启动项目（BSQDJ-029）

通讯作者: 侯明华，Email: xyshmh@126.com

引用本文:

张圆，侯明华. 某三甲医院耳鼻喉科入院人数变化趋势分析[J]. 中国医院统计, 2024, 31(3): 193-196.
Zhang Yuan，Hou Minghua. Change trend of the number of admissions to the otolaryngology department of a tertiary hospital. journal1, 2024, 31(3): 193-196.

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