基于血常规及CA125指标的卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险预测模型构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2021.04.005

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摘要目的构建基于血常规及CA125指标的卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险预测模型。方法回顾性分析2015年1 月至2019年1月期间某医院妇产科收住入院的卵巢肿瘤手术患者的临床资料。收集患者入院时的一般资料、血常规、CA125以及术后病理等。应用SPSS 25.0 和R 3.6.1 软件进行统计分析，构建列线图预测模型并评价。结果收集92例符合纳入标准的卵巢肿瘤手术患者，其中术后病理显示56例卵巢癌、36例良性卵巢肿瘤。中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率（NLR）、血小板/淋巴细胞比率（PLR）为卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险的独立因素。以CA125、NLR以及PLR为变量建立风险列线图预测模型，ROC曲线计算曲线下面积（AUC）为0.983，模型准确性良好，应用calibration曲线评价模型一致性尚可。结论 NLR升高、PLR升高是卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险的独立危险因素。基于CA125、NLR以及PLR指标建立的卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险列线图预测模型准确性良好，对医务人员快速简单地进行卵巢癌风险判定具有一定的价值，可进一步通过多中心、大样本的数据进行验证

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关键词 ：卵巢肿瘤, 卵巢癌, 中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率, 血小板/淋巴细胞比率, CA125, 列线图

Abstract：Objective To construct a prediction model of malignant risk in ovarian tumor patients based on blood routine and CA125 index. Methods A retrospective observational study was carried out in the department of obstetrics and gynaecology from January 2015 to January 2019. The general clinical data, blood routine, CA125 and postoperative pathology of the patients were collected. The statistical analysis of SPSS 25.0 and R 3.6.1 software was applied to constructing the nomograph prediction model for evaluation. Results We collected 92 patients with ovarian tumor surgery who met the inclusion criteria, including 56 cases of ovarian cancer and 36 cases of benign ovarian tumor. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were independent factors for malignant risk in patients with ovarian tumors. Using CA125, NLR and PLR as variables, the nomograph prediction model was established. The area under curve (AUC) calculated by ROC curve was 0.983, the accuracy of the model was good, and the consistency of the evaluation model using calibration curve was good. Conclusion NLR elevation and PLR elevation are independent risk factors for ovarian cancer patients. The prediction model based on CA125, NLR and PLR indicators for ovarian cancer patients has good accuracy. It has certain value to quickly and simply carry out ovarian cancer risk determination and can be further verified by multi-center and large sample data.

Key words： ovarian tumor ovarian cancer neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio platelet to lymphocyte ratio CA125 nomograph

收稿日期: 2021-01-25

通讯作者: 沈群弟，Email：sqdsxdqrmyy@163.com

引用本文:

俞霄，沈群弟. 基于血常规及CA125指标的卵巢肿瘤患者恶性风险预测模型构建[J]. 中国医院统计, 2021, 28(4): 311-314.
Yu Xiao， Shen Qundi. Construction of prediction model for malignant risk in ovarian tumor patients based on blood routine and CA125 index. journal1, 2021, 28(4): 311-314.

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