Abstract：Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen, so as to provide the basis data on preventing leukemia cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of leukemia cancer from 2010 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost (AYLL), and the average percentage change (APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2010 to 2014, the average mortality rate of leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen was 3.45 per 100,000 persons and the rate for male was 1.51 times of that for female. The AYLL, which was 24.63 years, had a decline trend from 2010 to 2014. All mortality rates and AYLLs could fit out the GM(1,1) model except the mortality rate in female. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 0.54%-6.97%. The mortality rate and AYLL of leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2017. Conclusion GM(1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen. Leukemia cancer is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City. We should not relax the prevention and control of leukemia.
林艺兰，陈敏，张琼花，池家煌. 厦门市居民白血病死亡与减寿趋势预测[J]. 中国医院统计, 2016, 23(3): 161-163.
Lin Yilan, Chen Min, Zhang Qionghua, Chi Jiahuang. Prediction of mortality and years of life lost due to leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen. journal1, 2016, 23(3): 161-163.
