Abstract：Objective To establish a predictive model for the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in patients with hypertension and evaluate it. Methods Patients with hypertension in our hospital from June 2016 to December 2018 were analyzed retrospectively.The clinical data, main biochemical indexes and intima-medium thickness value of carotid artery were collected. SPSS 25.0 and R 3.6.1 software were used for statistical analysis, and the prediction model was established and evaluated. Results Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years, elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol and alkaline phosphatase were independent risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in patients with hypertension. According to the variables selected by Logistic regression model, the risk nomograph was established. The C-index is 0.770, and the distinguishing ability of the model is good. The AUC calculated by ROC curve is 0.770, and the accuracy of the model is good. The evaluation of Calibration curve and Decision curve shows that the consistency and benefit of the model are still available. Conclusion The accuracy of the nomograph for the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in patients with hypertension is reasonable, which has a certain reference value in the clinical work and individual risk analysis. However, due to the small sample size and the limited source of cases,it still needs to be verified by large sample and multicenter research.
沈群弟. 基于医院的高血压患者颈动脉硬化发生风险列线图的建立[J]. 中国医院统计, 2020, 27(3): 211-214.
Shen Qundi. Establishment of a hospital-based nomogram of the risk of carotid atherosclerosis in patients with hypertension. journal1, 2020, 27(3): 211-214.
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