25 August 2025, Volume 32 Issue 4

    

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  Retrospective Cohort Study on the Changing Trend of Lung Cancer Survival Rate in a Tertiary Grade A Oncology Hospital in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2015

  ZhengHao, ChenSiyang, HuangQingxi, ZhaoYanli, ZhouXiao

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 241-245. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.001

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  Objectives To explore the long-term trends in demographic characteristics and survival rates of lung cancer patients in a Grade A tertiary oncology hospital in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2015, so as to provide epidemiological evidence for lung cancer prevention and control strategies. Methods Information of patients first diagnosed with lung cancer in a large Grade A tertiary oncology hospital from 2000 to 2015 was extracted from the hospital's medical record information system, including demographic data, diagnosis and treatment information, and follow-up data up to December 31, 2020. Stratified analysis was conducted according to diagnosis year (2000-2003, 2004-2006, 2007-2009, 2010-2012, and 2013-2015), gender, and age (<45 years, 45-54 years, 55-64 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years). Trend chi-square test was used to analyze the changing trends of the composition ratio of patients in different groups during the observation period; life table method was adopted for survival analysis to evaluate the 5-year survival rate and median survival time of patients; weighted least squares regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of survival rate and median survival time. Results A total of 20,685 patients were included in the final analysis, with 71.0% being male and 29.0% being female. The composition ratio of female patients gradually increased from 24.9% in 2000-2003 to 31.5% in 2013-2015 (χ²=49.449, P<0.001). The overall 5-year survival rate of lung cancer patients increased from 20.3% (95%CI: 18.7%-21.9%) in 2000-2003 to 47.6% (95%CI: 46.0%-49.2%) in 2013-2015, with an average increase of 6.8% every 3 years (95%CI: 4.1%-9.4%). The 5-year survival rate of female patients increased more significantly, from 21.4% (95%CI: 18.1%-24.7%) to 56.3% (95%CI: 53.7%-59.0%), with an average increase of 8.8% every 3 years (95%CI: 6.1%-11.6%); the survival rate of male patients increased from 19.9% (95%CI: 18.1%-21.7%) to 43.3% (95%CI: 41.4%-45.2%), with an average increase of 5.5% every 3 years. Age-stratified analysis showed that the 5-year survival rate of young patients increased more significantly; the median survival time of lung cancer patients in different gender and age groups showed an upward trend, with the median survival time increasing from 1.58 years (2000-2003) to 4.90 years (2013-2015) (P<0.05). Conclusions From 2000 to 2015, the 5-year survival rate and median survival time of lung cancer patients in a Grade A tertiary oncology hospital in Guangdong Province increased significantly. Among them, female and young lung cancer patients had higher 5-year survival rates and a greater annual increase, which was attributed to the continuous improvement of lung cancer diagnosis and treatment quality in Guangdong Province. However, the gradual increase in the composition ratio of female lung cancer patients suggests that further research on the pathogenesis of lung cancer and related influencing factors is needed to provide a basis for the formulation of lung cancer prevention and control strategies.
  

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  The Value of ¹⁴C Urea Breath Test Combined with Helicobacter Pylori Immunohistochemical Staining in Early Screening for Gastric Cancer

  YangJunyin, ZhuTingting

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 246-250. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.002

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  Objectives This study aimed to explore the effectiveness and value of the ¹⁴C urea breath test (¹⁴C-UBT) combined with Helicobacter pylori (Hp) immunohistochemical staining in the early screening of gastric cancer.Methods A total of 1,010 patients who visited the Department of Gastroenterology of a hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were included in the study. The ¹⁴C-UBT was used to detect Hp infection in patients; routine gastroscopy was performed and gastric mucosa samples were collected, and immunohistochemical (IHC) staining was used to detect Hp infection in gastric mucosa biopsy samples. According to the gastroscopic observation results and gastric mucosa pathological diagnosis, patients were divided into the atrophic gastritis group, superficial gastritis group, gastric ulcer group, and gastric cancer group. The positive detection rates of Hp in ¹⁴C-UBT and biopsy samples were compared among the groups, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the clinical efficacy of the above indicators alone or in combination in gastric cancer screening. Results Chi-square test showed that for ¹⁴C-UBT, χ²=57.844 (P<0.01), and for IHC staining, χ²=58.697 (P<0.001). Both detection methods indicated that the differences in Hp positive rates among the four groups were statistically significant. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of ¹⁴C-UBT alone for gastric cancer screening was 0.5920; the positive rate of Hp detected by IHC staining was lower than that of ¹⁴C-UBT, and its AUC for gastric cancer screening alone was 0.5741; the combined application of the two methods improved the screening accuracy, with an AUC of 0.7622. Conclusions Among patients with different types of chronic gastropathy, there are statistically significant differences in Hp positive rates. The combined application of ¹⁴C-UBT and Hp immunohistochemical staining has higher accuracy in the early screening of gastric cancer.
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  Retrospective Cohort Study on the Safety and Efficacy of Propofol Circumfenil for Anesthetic Induction in Pediatric Patients Undergoing Orthopedic Surgery

  ZhangJiayi, WangSitong, ZhaoWenjie, YanYurong

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 251-254. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.003

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  Objectives This study aimed to explore the safety and efficacy of ciprofol in general anesthesia induction for pediatric patients undergoing orthopedic surgery by comparing it with propofol. Methods Propensity score matching was used to retrospectively analyze the clinical data of pediatric patients who underwent orthopedic surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical University from May 2024 to November 2024. According to the different intravenous general anesthetics used in anesthesia induction, the cases were divided into the ciprofol group and the propofol group. The primary outcome measures included hemodynamic changes such as blood pressure and heart rate of the children after entering the operating room, during induction, during intubation, and 10 minutes after intubation; the secondary outcome measures included adverse reactions such as postoperative nausea and vomiting. Results A total of 35 patients in the ciprofol group and 45 patients in the propofol group who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled. After propensity score matching, 32 patients in the ciprofol group and 32 patients in the propofol group were finally included. There were no statistically significant differences in baseline indicators such as age, gender, height, and body weight between the ciprofol group and the propofol group (P>0.05). The mean arterial pressure of the ciprofol group was higher than that of the propofol group during anesthesia induction, intubation, and 10 minutes after intubation, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05); the heart rates of the two groups were similar during anesthesia induction, intubation, and 10 minutes after intubation, with no statistically significant differences (P>0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions such as postoperative nausea and vomiting between the two groups (P>0.05). Conclusions Compared with propofol, ciprofol has more stable hemodynamic indicators during anesthesia induction and can better complete general anesthesia induction in children. 
  

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  Prediction Model of Complicated Shoulder-Hand Syndrome in Elderly Stroke Patients Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression Analysis

  WuTingting

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 255-262. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.004

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  Objectives This study aimed to explore the risk factors for complicated shoulder-hand syndrome (SHS) in elderly stroke patients and construct a prediction model for SHS in elderly stroke patients. Methods A total of 252 elderly stroke patients treated in a hospital from May 2020 to November 2023 were selected as the training set, and they were divided into the SHS group and non-SHS group according to whether they had complicated SHS. Another 108 elderly stroke patients treated in the same hospital from December 2023 to October 2024 were selected as the test set. Data including age, gender, stroke type, stroke history, complicated hemiplegia, obesity, malnutrition, depression, alcohol consumption, smoking, dysphagia, sleep quality, hypertension and diabetes were collected from the two groups. LASSO analysis was used to screen the predictive factors for SHS in elderly stroke patients, logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for SHS in elderly stroke patients, R4.2.3 was used to establish a nomogram model for SHS in elderly stroke patients, and the predictive efficacy of the model was analyzed. Results Among the 252 elderly stroke patients, 78 developed SHS, with an incidence rate of 30.95%. There were no statistically significant differences in age, gender, stroke type, stroke history, obesity, malnutrition, alcohol consumption, dysphagia and hypertension between the SHS group and non-SHS group (P>0.05), while there were statistically significant differences in complicated hemiplegia, depression, smoking, sleep quality and diabetes between the two groups (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that complicated hemiplegia, depression, smoking, poor sleep quality and diabetes were risk factors for SHS in elderly stroke patients (P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.648-0.790), and the AUC of the test set was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.659-0.797). The bootstrap method was used to obtain the calibration curve, and the bias-corrected curve was used to evaluate the calibration curve. The actual values of the calibration curve in the training set were basically consistent with the predicted values, with a C-index of 0.736 (95% CI: 0.671-0.801) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test result of χ²=1.642 (P=0.801). The actual values of the calibration curve in the test set were basically consistent with the predicted values, with a C-index of 0.743 (95% CI: 0.634-0.852) and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test result of χ²=0.630 (P=0.889). The decision curve of the training set showed that when the threshold probability was 15%-93%, the nomogram had a high net benefit value in predicting SHS in elderly stroke patients; the decision curve of the test set showed that when the threshold probability was 13%-85%, the nomogram had a high net benefit value in predicting SHS in elderly stroke patients. Conclusions Complicated hemiplegia, depression, smoking, poor sleep quality and diabetes are risk factors for SHS in elderly stroke patients, and the nomogram model for SHS in stroke patients has certain clinical practicability.
  

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  Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Chronic Pain After Abdominal Hysterectomy

  XiongHuarong, LiaoLili, LiuWei, YingXiao

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 263-268. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.005

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  Objectives This study aimed to explore the risk factors for chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) in patients undergoing total abdominal hysterectomy (TAH) and to construct and validate a prediction model based on these factors. Methods A total of 203 patients who underwent TAH in a hospital from January 2022 to May 2023 were retrospectively selected as the modeling set. According to the postoperative Numerical Rating Scale (NRS) scores, the patients were divided into the CPSP group (n=56) and the non-CPSP group (n=147). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for risk factors, and a prediction model was constructed and validated based on independent risk factors. Meanwhile, the predictive efficacy of the model was evaluated. Another 87 patients who underwent TAH in the same hospital from June 2023 to November 2023 were selected as the validation set for external validation of the model's predictive efficacy. Results The incidence of CPSP in TAH patients was 27.59%. Univariate analysis showed that preoperative pain, anxiety, depression, NRS score at 1 hour postoperatively, and Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) score were all influencing factors for CPSP in TAH patients (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that preoperative pain, anxiety, depression, high NRS score at 1 hour postoperatively, and high PCS score were independent risk factors for CPSP in TAH patients (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was 0.879 (95% confidence interval: 0.823-0.934), with a maximum Youden index of 0.671, a sensitivity of 0.821, and a specificity of 0.850, showing good discriminative ability. Hosmer-Lemeshow test was performed on the nomogram model, and the results showed χ²=13.263 (P=0.103); the calibration curve of the model was generally close to the ideal curve, indicating good fitting degree (P<0.05). Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that when the threshold probability was in the range of 12%-99%, using this nomogram model to predict CPSP in TAH patients could obtain net benefits, with good clinical application value. The results of external validation showed that the model had a good predictive effect. Conclusions This prediction model can effectively predict the risk of CPSP in TAH patients and emphasizes the importance of preoperative assessment and intervention. It not only provides a basis for the early identification of high-risk patients, but also serves as an important tool for clinical practice. Additionally, it may provide references for exploring effective preventive measures during the perioperative period and reducing the burden of postoperative CPSP on patients.
  

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  Survey and Analysis on Outpatient Pharmacy Window Service Satisfaction in 20 Hospitals

  HuangXiaowu, WangRui, LiuWei, LiXinyan, LiuZhen, LiuYang, LiLin, LiuLihua, LiGuoping

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 269-275. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.006

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  Objectives To understand the satisfaction level and influencing factors of outpatient pharmacy window services in hospitals nationwide, and to provide a basis for improving the quality of outpatient pharmacy services and optimizing pharmacy management work. Methods Questionnaire survey data on outpatient patient experience in hospitals from different regions, collected by the Patient Experience Research Base of the Medical Administration and Service Guidance Center of the National Health Commission between 2021 and 2024, were used. Variables including patients’ basic information, waiting time for medication pickup, satisfaction with medication usage explanation, and relevant hospital characteristics were collected. A mixed-effects model was adopted to analyze the influencing factors of waiting time for medication pickup and satisfaction with medication usage explanation. Results A total of 39,957 outpatients from 20 hospitals were surveyed, including 16,093 males (40.3%) and 23,864 females (59.7%). Among the outpatients, 36,914 cases (92.38%) had a waiting time for medication pickup of 20 minutes or less, and 3,043 cases (7.62%) had a waiting time of more than 20 minutes; 32,247 cases (80.70%) were satisfied with the medication usage explanation, and 7,710 cases (19.30%) were dissatisfied. Hospital grade (OR=2.70, 95%CI:1.45-5.02) and hospital location (OR=0.41, 95%CI:0.18-0.94) were the main factors affecting the waiting time for medication pickup. Age, gender, long-term residence, expense category, and reasons for hospital selection also had statistically significant effects on the waiting time for medication pickup (P<0.05). Waiting time for medication pickup (OR=0.20, 95%CI:0.18-0.21) and hospital grade (OR=0.66, 95%CI:0.54-0.82) were the main factors affecting satisfaction with medication usage explanation. Gender, long-term residence, expense category, reasons for hospital selection, hospital location, and average daily outpatient volume also had statistically significant effects on satisfaction with medication usage explanation (P<0.05). Conclusions Outpatient pharmacy window services urgently need further strengthening and refinement. It is necessary to enhance the awareness of active service, rationally allocate human resources, improve pharmacists’ professional level, advocate civilized and polite service, and popularize drug knowledge through multiple channels, so as to improve patients’ medical experience.
  

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  Study on Prediction of Medical and Health Resources in Henan Province Based on the GM(1,1) Grey Model

  Jingmengjuan, XuXiulu, LiLiming, ZhuShichao, WeiXiaojing, LiHao, LiChunpeng

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 276-281. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.007

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  Objective To analyze the current status of medical and health resources in Henan Province and predict the changing trends of these resources.Methods Based on the data related to medical and health resources in Henan Province from 2012 to 2021, a grey GM(1,1) prediction model was constructed to predict and analyze the allocation of human, material, and financial resources of medical and health services in Henan Province from 2022 to 2025.Results By 2025, the number of medical institutions in Henan Province will increase to 77,659, the number of hospital beds will rise to 920,000, and the average number of beds per 1,000 people will be 9.40. The number of licensed (assistant) doctors and registered nurses will reach 306,000 and 447,200 respectively, with a doctor-nurse ratio of 1:1.46. The total health expenditure will increase to 664.668 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 11.63%, among which government health expenditure, social health expenditure, and personal health expenditure will account for 24.17%, 50.96%, and 24.88% respectively.Conclusions The level of hospital bed allocation and health financing in Henan Province is gradually improving, but the number of medical institutions is growing slowly and there is still a shortage of registered nurses. It is urgent to take effective measures to rationally allocate health resources and accurately meet the differentiated and multi-level health needs of the people.

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  Study on Optimization of Comprehensive Budget Management in Public Hospitals Based on DRG Payment 

  LiuJie

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 282-285. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.008

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  Objective To scientifically formulate budget targets, integrate the Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRG) tool into budget management, develop a budget preparation method that matches the medical insurance payment method, and improve the level of budget management. Methods Based on 282,701 DRG-related cases from 2022 to 2023, SPSS 25.0 software was used for statistical analysis. An income budget prediction model was established through analysis of variance and regression analysis. Results According to the model prediction, the Case Mix Index (CMI) in 2024 could reach 1.31, the total weight increased by 9.8%, the unit price per weight decreased from 24,662 yuan to 21,570 yuan, the total budgeted income increased by 6.90%, and the average cost increased by 4.67%. Conclusion Integrating medical services into comprehensive budget management in the form of DRG data realizes the refinement of budget management, promotes the transformation of public hospitals' operation mode to value-based healthcare, and contributes to the achievement of strategic goals. 
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  Evaluation of Human Resource Allocation Efficiency in Village Health Clinics of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2022

  LuDan, LinJianchao

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 286-289. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.009

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  Objective To analyze the human resource allocation in village health clinics of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2022, and provide references for the optimal allocation of primary health human resources.Methods Key input and output indicators of health human resource allocation were selected, and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method was used to comprehensively evaluate the efficiency of human resource allocation in village health clinics of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2022.Results From 2009 to 2022, the number of licensed (assistant) physicians and registered nurses in village health clinics of Zhejiang Province showed a steady upward trend; the number of village health clinics and rural doctors gradually decreased; and the team of health workers experienced significant fluctuations. During this period, the average comprehensive efficiency of human resource allocation in village health clinics of Zhejiang Province was 0.951, the average technical efficiency was 0.984, and the average scale efficiency was 0.966. Among the 14 years, there were 7 years with effective efficiency, accounting for 50% of the total years.
  Conclusion From 2009 to 2022, the overall efficiency of human resource allocation in village health clinics of Zhejiang Province was relatively high, but there were significant differences in the allocation of professionals with different technical backgrounds. It is necessary to reasonably regulate the primary health human resources.
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  Study on Operational Efficiency and Surgery Volume Forecasting of Surgical Departments in a Tertiary Specialized Public Hospital (2020–2023)

  LiuQian, ChangXiaoqing, WangHongguang

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 290-296. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.010

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  Objective To evaluate the operational efficiency of surgical departments in a tertiary specialized public hospital, establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) multiplicative seasonal model to predict surgical volume, and provide references for the hospital's operational decision-making. Methods Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malmquist index method were used for static and dynamic analysis of 13 surgical departments in the target hospital from 2020 to 2023. The ARIMA combined with multiplicative seasonal model was applied to predict the short-term future surgical volume. Results From 2020 to 2023, the proportions of non-DEA efficient surgical departments in the hospital were 30.8%, 46.2%, 23.1% and 46.2% respectively, with accurate recommended values for adjusting input and output quantities. The average values of total factor productivity change index for each year and the four-year period were 0.957, 0.937, 1.051 and 0.980 respectively. The ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model predicted that the hospital's short-term future surgical volume would continue to increase, and the hospital should adjust resource allocation reasonably in advance. Conclusion There are differences in operational efficiency among the surgical departments of the hospital, so differentiated management should be well implemented. It is recommended to flexibly adjust health resource allocation by combining scientific analysis tools such as DEA and ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model. 
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  Association between Internet Use and Incidence Risk of Memory-Related Diseases among Middle-Aged and Elderly Adults in China: Evidence from a Cohort Study Based on CHARLS Data 

  ShiHuiling, JiangBingxin, YongfuYu

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 297-302. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.011

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  Objective To explore the long-term impact of internet use on memory-related diseases, reveal its potential longitudinal association, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and intervention of related diseases. Methods Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a cohort study included 14,635 participants aged ≥ 45 years. Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw survival curves, and Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the longitudinal association between internet use habits, changes in these habits, and memory-related diseases. Results During 9 years of follow-up, a total of 1,015 cases (6.93%) of memory-related diseases were reported. Cox regression analysis showed that internet use was associated with a reduced risk of memory-related diseases (HR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.29 - 0.97); however, this association was only statistically significant in the high-frequency use group (HR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.10 - 0.75).Conclusion Internet use is negatively associated with the risk of memory-related diseases among middle-aged and elderly adults in China. Rational use of the internet by the elderly helps prevent the occurrence of memory-related diseases and improve brain health.
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  Study on the Association Between Healthy Sleep Patterns and the Risk of Peptic Ulcer

  Xin Zhizhen, Zheng Xueying, YaoYe

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 303-310. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.012

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  Objective To explore the relationship between healthy sleep patterns and the risk of peptic ulcer, with a view to early prevention and relevant interventions.Methods A total of 357,636 participants from the UK Biobank were included in this study. Healthy sleep patterns were defined to include sleep duration, sleep chronotype, insomnia, snoring, and daytime napping. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between healthy sleep patterns and the risk of peptic ulcer.Results Healthy sleep patterns were associated with a reduced risk of peptic ulcer (HR=0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.89), gastric ulcer (HR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.84–0.89), and duodenal ulcer (HR=0.89, 95% CI: 0.86–0.92). Specifically, sleep duration of 7–8 hours per day (HR=0.82, 95% CI: 0.79–0.85), morning chronotype (HR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.87–0.94), infrequent insomnia (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.74–0.81), and infrequent daytime napping (HR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.68–0.82) were all associated with a reduced risk of peptic ulcer. The results of subgroup analysis stratified by baseline characteristics were consistent with the overall model.
  Conclusion Having healthy sleep patterns is associated with a reduced risk of peptic ulcer, gastric ulcer, and duodenal ulcer. Therefore, taking effective measures to improve sleep behavior is of positive significance for the public to prevent peptic ulcer.
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  Analysis of TORCH Infection Status in 2,456 Women of Childbearing Age in Binzhou Area 

  CaoLin, LiangShushu, XuHaixiao

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 311-314. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.013

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  Objective To understand the status of TORCH infection in reproductive-age women in Binzhou Area and provide reference for infection prevention and prenatal and postnatal care. Methods Retrospectively collect TORCH test results of reproductive-age women, analyze from the aspects of year, age and season, and use SPSS statistical software for chi-square test (χ² test). Results In the serum TORCH test of reproductive-age women, the highest IgM positive rate was for herpes simplex virus (HSV₁₊₂) (14.45%), followed by rubella virus (RV) (1.51%), cytomegalovirus (CMV) (0.53%) and Toxoplasma gondii (TOX) (0.37%); the highest IgG positive rate was for CMV (96.36%), followed by HSV₁₊₂(94.08%) and RV (81.09%), with the lowest being TOX (0.66%). There were statistically significant differences in the positive rates of HSV₁₊₂-IgM, RV-IgM/IgG and CMV-IgG among different years (P＜0.05); there were statistically significant differences in the positive rates of HSV₁₊₂-IgM, CMV-IgG and RV-IgG among different age groups (P＜0.05); there were no statistically significant differences in the positive rates of TORCH IgM and IgG among different seasons (P＞0.05). Conclusion Acute infection in Binzhou Area is mainly caused by HSV₁₊₂ and shows an increasing trend year by year; previous infections are mainly caused by CMV and HSV₁₊₂, neither of which has seasonal distribution characteristics, and the infection is mainly in women of appropriate childbearing age. To reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes and improve the quality of newborns, it is still necessary to strengthen TORCH screening for reproductive-age women. 
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  Urban-Rural Comparison of Influencing Factors of Depressive Symptoms in Chinese Elderly Based on Logistic Regression and Decision Tree Models

  SunZekun, ZhangLe, JiangWenqing, TanHuimin, FanChenqi, YuanHaiyang, LiuHaixia

  Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics. 2025, 32(4): 315-320. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.04.014

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  Objective To analyze the influencing factors of depression risk among the urban and rural elderly in China, and conduct a comparison between urban and rural areas.Methods Based on the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data, a total of 7,690 elderly individuals aged 60 years and above were included as the research subjects. Binary logistic regression model and decision tree model were used to conduct multivariate analysis on the depression risk of the urban and rural elderly. Additionally, the prediction accuracy of the two models and the screened influencing factors were compared. Results (1) The detection rate of high depression risk among the 7,690 elderly individuals was 30.73%, with 21.5% in urban areas and 43.0% in rural areas.
  (2) Gender, educational level, self-rated health, and chronic diseases were common influencing factors for depression risk among both urban and rural elderly. High depression risk in the urban elderly was associated with social activities, while depression risk in the rural elderly was associated with wage income and sleep.(3) The correct prediction rates of the logistic regression model for the influencing factors of depression in the urban and rural elderly were 82.5% and 74.3% respectively, and those of the decision tree model were 81.5% and 73.4% respectively. The prediction effect of the logistic regression model was better than that of the decision tree model.Conclusion There are significant urban-rural differences in the proportion of high depression risk and its influencing factors among the elderly in China.