WANG Xiaofeng, WU Xiaolan
Objective To explore the application effect of risk intervention based on binary logistic regression analysis in the preventive management of defective loaner instrument packages in the Central Sterile Supply Department (CSSD). Methods A total of 298 loaner instruments registered from April 2023 to December 2023 were retrospectively selected as the modeling group through the CSSD information traceability system of a hospital. According to the defect status of loaner instruments, they were divided into the defect group (n=52) and the qualified group (n=246). Univariate analysis and binary logistic regression were used to identify independent risk factors, construct a risk prediction model, and analyze the application of risk intervention in the preventive management of defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD. Another 128 loaner instruments registered in the hospital from January 2024 to April 2024 were selected as the verification group for external verification of the predictive performance of the model. Furthermore, 141 loaner instruments registered from May 2024 to August 2024 were managed with risk intervention based on the risk prediction model. Results The incidence of defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD was 17.45% (52/298). Univariate analysis showed that unused contaminants on instruments with service life limits, compliance of supplier qualification and training, standardized loading, standardized pretreatment, standardized operation of cleaning equipment, correct concentration of cleaning agent, standardized cleaning procedures, qualified disinfection and sterilization, post duty performance, and sound systems/procedures/plans were influencing factors for defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD (P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that using contaminated instruments with service life limits, non-compliance of supplier qualification and training, non-standard loading, non-standard pretreatment, non-standard operation of cleaning equipment, incorrect concentration of cleaning agent, non-standard cleaning procedures, failure of disinfection and sterilization, failure to perform post duties, and imperfect systems/procedures/plans were independent risk factors for defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD (P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the risk prediction model was 0.866 (95%CI:0.810–0.923), the maximum Youden index was 0.605, the sensitivity was 0.731, and the specificity was 0.874, indicating good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the nomogram fitting effect yielded χ²=8.082, P=0.325, showing good fitting degree (P>0.05). The overall trend of the model calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, with favorable calibration performance (P<0.05). When the threshold probability of the decision curve analysis (DCA) for defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD ranged from 0.07 to 0.83, the net benefit of applying the prediction model was relatively high. The external verification confirmed favorable predictive efficiency of the model. After risk intervention targeting the above independent risk factors of defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD identified by binary logistic regression analysis, the theoretical and operational assessment scores of CSSD staff were higher than those before intervention, and the incidence rate of defective packages (2.13%) was lower than before intervention, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Conclusion The risk prediction model constructed based on independent risk factors for defective loaner instrument packages in CSSD has good predictive performance. The application of risk intervention based on binary logistic regression analysis to the preventive management of loaner instrument packages in CSSD can improve staff awareness of preventive management and reduce the risk of defective packages.