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| Predictions on the mortality rate of children under five in Guangzhou based on ARIMA model |
| Liu Tao. |
| Department of Medical Records and Statistics,the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Guangzhou 510080,China |
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Abstract Objective To analyze and predict the mortality rate of children under five (U5MR) in Guangzhou, and to provide scientific basis for the improvement of children's health care. Methods SPSS 19.0 was used to establish an integrated mobile average autoregression(ARIMA)model for the time series composed of U5MR in Guangzhou from 2001 to 2017. After obtaining the relative optimal fitting model,the short-term prediction of U5MR in Guangzhou was carried out. Results The ARIMA(1,2,0) model has a good effect on U5MR fitting in Guangzhou. The prediction with the mode 1shows that the data of Guangzhou from 2018 to 2020 conforms to the U5MR trend ,and the actual values fall into the confidence interval of the fitting model. Conclusion The ARIMA model is suitable for fitting the time change trend of U5MR and has strong practical value for short-term U5MR prediction in Guangzhou.
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Received: 21 June 2019
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