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| A study on the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in a district of Dongguan based on SARIMA model |
| Rao Yi |
| Information Department of Chang′an Hospital, Dongguan 523843,China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the posibility of using SARIMA model to predict the incidence of hand foot mouth disease in Dongguan, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of hand foot mouth disease. Methods SARIMA model was used to model the incidence of foot mouth disease in June 2014 in January 2010, and the predictive effect of the model was verified by using 12 months in July 2014. Results In Dongguan City, a district of hand disease outbreak peak is 2nd quarter of each year, the first quarter is a low incidence. SARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0) 12 is well fitted to the time series of the past period， and the prediction of July Dec in 2014 and the actual incidence trend is consistent, the average relative error is 13.09, the average relative error is 9.79%. Conclusion SARIMA model can better fit the trend of the time variation of foot mouth disease in Dongguan City, and can be used to predict the future incidence.
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Received: 27 July 2015
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