基于灰色系统的医院收支平衡水平回归预测模型构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.02.008

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Abstract Objective To investigate the influencing factors affecting the level of hospital revenue and expenditure balance, and construct a regression prediction model under the payment of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) point method in Ningbo City.Methods The income and expenditure balance level of a Hospital of Ningbo city from January to December 2021 and 20 related factors indicators were collected, typical indicators were selected by similarity cluster analysis, and the weights of the typical indicators were calculated by using gray correlation analysis, so as to construct a gray system multivariate regression prediction model.Results The key indicators influencing the balance of revenue and expenditure included two positive indicators which were the proportion of lowmagnification cases and total weight, and 3 negative indicators which were the proportion of normal cases, cost consumption index, and proportion of DRG settlement cases. The correlation and weight of each indicator were in the following descending order: proportion of low-magnification cases, total weight, proportion of DRG settlement cases, proportion of normal cases, and cost consumption index. By applying these five indicators, we constructed a grey system multivariate regression prediction model, which was proven to meet the criteria for effectiveness and accuracy testing. This model could accurately fit and predict the level of income and expenditure balance in hospitals.Conclusion The multi-factor gray system regression prediction model is beneficial for hospital management to accurately formulate strategic goals and decisions, improve the level of hospital revenue and expenditure balance, and ensure the long-term stable development of hospitals.

Key words： diagnosis related groups (DRGs) revenue and expenditure balance gray correlation degree clustering multiple regression analysis

Received: 06 November 2023

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	Lu Yunfei

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Lu Yunfei. Construction of hospital breakeven level regression prediction model based on grey system[J]. journal1, 2024, 31(2): 118-123.

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http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.02.008 OR http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/Y2024/V31/I2/118

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