基于prophet模型预测中国布鲁氏菌病发病人数

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.01.002

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Abstract Objective To establish a time series model suitable for predicting the number of cases of brucellosis in China, and provide a scientific basis for preventing and controlling this disease.Methods This study utilized data on the number of cases from January 2015 to December 2021 to establish SARIMA and prophet models, respectively. Subsequently, the predictive performance of these two models was validated by using data from January 2022 to April 2023, and the results of the model predictions were compared by using three indicators: RMSE, MAPE, and MAE. Finally, the prophet model with higher accuracy was used to predict the number of cases from May 2023 to April 2024.Results The overall number of cases of brucellosis in China is rising, reaching its peak from June to July each year, showing a clear seasonal trend. Compared to the SARIMA model, the RMSE, MAPE, and MAE values of the prophet model are lower, indicating that the prophet model has higher accuracy in predicting brucellosis. The predicted peak of the number of cases in 2023 is lower than the actual peak in 2021 and 2022.Conclusion The prophet model can better fit the monthly reported number of cases of brucellosis in the country and can be used for short-term prediction.

Key words： brucellosis prophet model SARIMA model time series forecast

Received: 11 October 2023

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	Articles by authors
	Wen Fudong
	Zhao Binyu
	Su Yue
	Wang Yupeng

Cite this article:

Wen Fudong,Zhao Binyu,Su Yue, et al. Prediction of the number of brucellosis cases in China based on prophet model[J]. journal1, 2024, 31(1): 7-10.

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http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.01.002 OR http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/Y2024/V31/I1/7

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