Objective To compare predicted death value and actual value in a district of Suzhou from January to June in 2020, analyze the data of death causes, and determine the change trend of the cause of death. Methods Based on the cause of death monitoring data from January 2017 to December 2019, the database of death monitoring was used to establish the causes of death data prediction model through expert modeling method to predict the predicted value of death from January to June 2020, and the predicted value of death was compared with the actual value; meanwhile, the corresponding death data for 2020 and 2019 were compared to determine the changes in causes of death. Results The predicted total number of deaths in January-March 2020 was higher than the actual value, which was 4.41%, 8.93% and 6.37%, respectively. The actual number of deaths in January-June showed a U-shaped trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In February 2020, the predicted values of poisoning and injury, respiratory diseases and endocrine and metabolic diseases were 47.06%, 11.54 % and 25.00 %, higher than actual values. Compared with the same period in 2019, the total number of deaths in February and March 2020 decreased by 13.56% and 14.35% respectively, the number of deaths from all causes of death except malignant tumors was lower than that in 2019, and the number of deaths from heart disease and endocrine and metabolic diseases in March 2020 was significantly lower than that in the same period in 2019, with a decrease of 40% and 38.46% respectively. Conclusion The total number of deaths, poisoning and injuries, respiratory diseases and causes of heart diseases decreased to varying degrees from January to June in 2020 in a district of Suzhou.