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| Prediction of outpatient number in a hospital in 2018 with the least square method and the seasonal variation method |
| Ren Xiaochao |
| Statistics Room, Zhongjiang People′s Hospital, Deyang 618100, China |
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Abstract Objective To predict outpatient number per month in a hospital in 2018 with least square method and seasonal variation method, and to provide a scientific basis for hospital leaders to grasp the work dynamics of the hospital and to make work plans, work objectives and decisions.Methods The moving average method was used to calculate the seasonal index of outpatient number per month in a hospital from 2006 to 2017, and the least square method was used to get the linear regression equation and the predicted value of the number of outpatients per month in 2018.Results The peak of outpatient number in the hospital in 2018 was March, and the predicted number of outpatients in March was 75 925, with the 95% confidence interval [64 574, 87 276]. The trough period of the number of outpatients in the hospital in 2018 was September, and the predicted value of outpatient number in September was 63 761, with the 95% confidence interval [52 410, 75 112].Conclusion The predicted value obtained by the method of moving average seasonal index and the least square method can reflect the change rule of outpatient number per month in our hospital, and provide scientific basis for the leaders of our hospital to make work goals, plans and decisions.
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Received: 15 March 2018
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