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| Construction and application of an ARIMA model for predicting the number of outpatient visits in a Xinjiang tertiary general hospital |
| Li Jing1, Chen Yingying2, Huo Yongsheng1, Peng Qiaojun1 |
1 Outpatient Department of First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China;
2 Human Resource Department of First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University |
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Abstract Objective To study change rules of outpatient visits, to forecast the change tendency,and thus to provide a basis for hospital outpatient management decisions. Methods Combined with sequence stability with long-term trend and seasonal effect, by using SPSS 17.0 to establish ARIMA model. Results After the screening we got the optimal model of ARIMA (1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12, and made autocorrelation diagram of the residual series. The Results showed that the selected model was proper. The predicted number of outpatient visits in 2013 was 2.2674 million, while the actual number was 2.3099 million, with the relative error 4.4%. Conclusion There was a seasonal change and a growing trend for the number of outpatient visits, suitable for using ARIMA model, and the model prediction effect was good. It could provide basis for operation management and decision-making for the hospital leadership, and effectively guide the work plan and arrangement. The model application has effectiveness and generalizability in the outpatient management.
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