个体化预测老年慢性肾衰竭患者并发急性左心衰风险的列线图模型构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.01.004

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Abstract Objective To construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure.Methods Two hundred and ninety-four elderly patients with chronic renal failure admitted to our hospital from January 2019 to December 2019 were selected as the study subjects. According to the occurrence of acute left heart failure, they were divided into the left heart failure group (n=61) and the control group (n=233). The clinical data of the patients were collected. The risk factors of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and a nomogram model was established.Results Age≥70 years old, diabetes, poor blood pressure control, blood phosphorus concentration≥1.61 mmol/L, hemoglobin<60g/L and pulmonary infection were independent risk factors of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure (P<0.05). The model validation results showed that the C-index was 0.745, the calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and the AUC of the ROC curve was 0.751 (95%CI: 0.711-0.791). Within the range of 10%84%, the nomogram had a net benefit.Conclusion Age≥70 years old, diabetes, poor blood pressure control, blood phosphorus concentration≥ 1.61mmol/L, hemoglobin<60g/L and pulmonary infection will increase the risk of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure. The nomogram model established in this study has a good predictive effect on acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure.

Key words： elderly chronic renal failure acute left heart failure risk factor nomgram

Received: 24 August 2023

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Shen Yujuan. Establishment of nomogram model for individualized prediction of risk of acute left heart failure in elderly patients with chronic renal failure[J]. journal1, 2024, 31(1): 19-24.

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http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2024.01.004 OR http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/Y2024/V31/I1/19

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