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| Influence of the two-child policy on the time series of the number of births. |
| Wang Qian, Zhang Xiaojian. |
| Sichuan Provincial People′s Hospital, Chengdu 610072, China |
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Abstract Objecrive To analyze the influence of the "open two-child policy" on the number of births and its mechanism by using ARMAX model with intervention, so as to provide reference for the adjustment of family planning policies. Methods The variation trend of time series of births from January 2013 to December 2019 was analyzed, and the ARMAX models without intervention, pulse intervention and ladder intervention were constructed respectively. Moreover, the ability of the model to model and interpret the data was evaluated from the aspects of goodness of fit, residual normal white noise test and model parameter significance test. Results The modeling and interpreting ability of pulse intervention ARMA(1,0)-X model was better than that of ARMAX model without intervention and step intervention, and the autoregression parameters, linear trend parameters and part of the intervention parameters were statistically significant, and passed the residual normal white noise test. Conclusion The pulse intervention ARMAX model can well explain the variation trend of the number of births. The results of intervention analysis showed that the "open two-child policy" significantly stimulates the population′s fertility desire, but the stimulation effect exists for a short time and declines rapidly, which still has a certain gap with the expectation of long-term policy stimulation.
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Received: 08 December 2020
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