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| Application of ARIMA and SARIMA model in predicting hospital outpatients and discharges |
| Lian Hengli, Yu Jianqin, Fu Yinghui |
| The Eye Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Hangzhou 310020, China |
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Abstract Objective The ARIMA and SARIMA model were used to analyze and predict the number of outpatients and discharges. Methods We collected outpatient and discharge numbers in a hospital each month from January 2011 to June 2016, used ARIMA and SARIMA model to analyze data, and validated data from July 2016 to October 2016 to predict outpatients and discharges from November 2016 to June 2017. SPSS 17.0statistical software was used for model fitting and forecast. Results The ARIMA (6, 0) was the optimal fitting model in predicting hospital outpatients, and the SARIMA,1,1 (0), (0, 0) (excluding constant) was the optimal fitting model in predicting hospital discharges. Both models could be well fitted in predicting outpatients and discharges from July 2016 to October 2016. The prediction with the two models from November 2016 to June 2017 conformed to the change trend of outpatients and discharges, and the actual values fell in the 95% upper and lower limits of prediction. Conclusion The ARIMA and SARIMA models have strong practical value in prediction of short-term outpatients and discharges, and can provide the reference to hospital health resource allocation and scientific management.
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Received: 09 December 2016
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