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| Analysis of the seasonal variation of outpatient visits of a tertiary general hospital in Guangxi from 2004 to 2013 |
| Zhang Fan |
| Department of Medical Record Information of First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China |
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Abstract Objective To investigate the seasonal variation of outpatient visits of a tertiary general hospital in Guangxi from 2004 to 2013. Methods Using statistical data of a hospital clinic visits in various months from 2004 to 2013 to make statistical tables. Simple average method was used for seasonal variation analysis to calculate the seasonal index of each month (season rate). The forecasting model of ARIMA (1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 was established using residual error analysis and least squares method according to the sequence stability, and testing for linear trend equation, and finally we had the interval forecasting to the 95% confidence level. Results The outpatient visits of the average monthly were 123 339 patients in 10 years, with the most 217 065 patients in July 2013, the least 54 001 patients in January 2004, The minimum and maximum range of fluctuation range (range) was equal to 163 064 in 10 years. The outpatient amount each year in a hospital was that the highest month was 7 times in July and 2 times in August in 10 years and the lowest month was 6 times in February, and 4 times in January. The forecasting model AIC was 21.16, the SBC was 21.24, and the relative predictive error of predicting the outpatient visits was 6.9%. Conclusion The distribution of a hospital outpatient amount shows a strong seasonal variation. Using this analysis as a basis for clinic appointment, we can arrange outpatient service medical personnel reasonably, strengthen the out-patient power in peak, and shorten the treatment time of patients. That would be one of ways to coordinate reasonably the treatment time and the arrangement between doctors and patients.
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Received: 09 December 2014
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