基于竞争风险模型的浸润性乳腺癌全乳切除预后影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.06.002

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Abstract Objective To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with invasive breast cancer (IBC) undergoing total mastectomy by using a competing risk model, and to draw a nomogram for individualized prediction of survival rate.Methods The clinical data of patients with a diagnosis of IBC and total mastectomy were extracted from the SEER database, and the prognostic factors were determined by univariate and multivariate analysis based on the competing risk model. The nomogram was made to predict the 3 year and 5 year survival rate of patients after the operation, and Cindex, ROC curve and calibration curve were used to validate the predictability.Results Totally 129 808 IBC patients who underwent total mastectomy were included. Univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that the independent prognostic factors were age, race, marital status, histological grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, ER status, PR status, molecular subtype, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The nomogram was drawn using prognostic factors, the Cindex at 3 and 5 years was 0.853 and 0.823, and the AUC value of the ROC curve at 3 and 5 years was 0.821 and 0.818, respectively. The calibration curve showed excellent fit between prediction and actual situation.Conclusion The competing risk model can effectively identify the prognostic factors of IBC patients with total mastectomy, and the nomogram based on the model shows excellent predictive performance, which can provide foundation for clinicians to assess patient prognosis and develop individualized treatment plans.

Key words： invasive breast cancer SEER database competing risk model nomogram

Received: 26 September 2022

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	Li Qianni
	Xu Lingyan
	Li Jian
	Liu Meina

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Li Qianni,Xu Lingyan,Li Jian, et al. Prognostic factors of patients with invasive breast cancer undergoing total mastectomy based on the competing risk model[J]. journal1, 2022, 29(6): 410-418.

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http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.06.002 OR http://manu58.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_zgyytj/EN/Y2022/V29/I6/410

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