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2022 Vol. 29, No. 3
Published: 2022-06-25
 
 
161 Prediction of hospitalization and treatment trend of heart failure in a tertiary hospital based on time series model
Liu Min，Guo Xianxi， Wu Yue
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.001
Objective To establish a prediction model for the number of hospitalized patients with heart failure and average hopitalization days by using Winters exponential smoothing method, and to explore its application value and provide scientific basis for hospital management.Methods The number of hospitalized patients with heart failure and their average hopitalization days were collected from the electronic medical record system of a tertiary hospital, and the Winston exponential smoothing model was constructed by means of model diagnosis and parameter optimization to predict and analyze the trend of admission and treatment of heart failure in this hospital. The predicted results were evaluated.Results The data of patients with heart failure from January 2007 to December 2016 in this hospital were set as training samples for simulation construction and parameter optimization, and the data from January to December 2017 were used as test samples for prediction and verification. The results showed that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction model was 7.055%, the mean stationary R2 was 0.738, and the MAPE of the prediction model was 4.323%, the mean stationary R2 was 0.698. The actual number of inpatients and the average length of stay were within 95% confidence interval of the predicted value, indicating that the Winters exponential smoothing model could be used to predict the number of inpatients and average length of stay of heart failure.Conclusion The Winters exponential smoothing model can predict the seasonal trend of the number and average length of stay of patients with heart failure, and provide a scientific basis for the rational allocation of medical resources of hospitals.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 161-168 [Abstract] ( 48 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (4274 KB)  ( 134 )
169 Clinical characteristics of discharged patients treated mainly by TCM in a hospital from 2020 to 2021
Wang Jian, Chu Zhijie, Lu Wenqiao, Wang Jingyi
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.002
Objective To improve the ability of traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) medical service by retrospectively describing and analyzing the clinical diagnosis and treatment characteristics of discharged patients treated mainly by  TCM in a hospital.Methods Discharged patients were divided into the TCM dominant group and the non-TCM dominant group for analysis and comparison, according to the requirement of national performance assessment indicators.Results The differences in population distribution and cost between the two groups were statistically significant (P＜0.05); the number of discharged patients and the proportion of TCM dominant patients were higher for diseases such as posterior circulation ischemia, malignant tumor support treatment and lumbar intervertebral disc herniation; the proportion of DRG group diseases was high, such as alzheimer′s disease or other chronic brain function lesions, coronary atherosclerosis without complications and concomitant diseases.Conclusion Discharged patients treated mainly by TCM had a significant cost advantage, but the average hospitalization days were longer; the diseases with high proportion and high number of TCM dominant discharged patients can be candidate diseases of TCM superiority. It is necessary to actively explore the DRG management scheme in accordance with the characteristics of TCM therapy.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 169-173 [Abstract] ( 106 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3714 KB)  ( 531 )
174 Analysis of influencing factors of prolonged length of stay in a dermatological hospital based on the generalized estimating equation
Lin Jinxiong, Ren Yitao, Liao Yuehua, An Ningbo
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.003
Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics and risk factors of prolonged hospital length of stay in dermatosis patients based on generalized estimation equation (GEE).Methods Medical records of patients who were diagnosed with dermatosis from 2015 to 2019 in Guangzhou were collected and the GEE was applied to analyze the critical influencing factors of prolonged length of stay.Results Seven hundred and thirty-five inpatients with extremely long hospital stay in recent 5 years were selected, accounting for 4.80% of all patients included in the analysis. The results of GEE model showed that age (OR=1.322, 95%CI:1.110-1.598), marital status (OR=1.899, 95%CI: 1.476-2.442), medical insurance (OR=0.615, 95%CI: 0.516-0.733), surgery (OR=3.270, 95%CI: 2.727-3.921), nosocomial infection (OR=3.972, 95%CI:2.569-6.142), rehospitalization within one month (OR=2.227, 95%CI: 1.438-3.451) and the use of antibiotics (OR=5.891, 95%CI: 4.791-7.243) were influencing factors of prolonged length of stay.Conclusion The prolonged length of stay is related to clinical and social factors of patients with skin diseases. It is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of the influencing factors of prolonged hospital stay, shorten the average hospital stay by effective management means, and realize the rational allocation of medical resources.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 174-178 [Abstract] ( 35 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2895 KB)  ( 121 )
179 Case analysis on ICD-10 coding for premature rupture of obstetric membranes in a hospital from January to June 2021
Rao Yi
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.004
Objective To summarize the methods and ideas of accurate coding for premature rupture of membranes, so as to improve the coding accuracy of premature rupture of membranes.Methods I retrieved medical records with ICD-10 code O42 as the main diagnosis in the obstetrics department of a hospital from Jan. 1st, 2021 to June 30th, 2021. According to the international classification code of diseases (ICD-10) rules and combined with relevant clinical medical knowledge, the accuracy of the classification code of premature rupture of membranes on the first page of each medical records was reviewed and analyzed one by one, and the error types and factors leading to errors were statistically analyzed.Results There were coding errors in 38 medical records, with an error rate of 33.63%. The main reasons of the errors were shown as follows: carelessness and lacking knowledge of clinical and coding rules of the coders; poor mastery of the main principles of obstetrics diagnosis and inaccurate writing of medical records of clinicians.Conclusion It is necessary to improve coding accuracy by strengthening the construction of the coding team, controlling coding quality as well as training coders and clinicians.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 179-182 [Abstract] ( 39 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3147 KB)  ( 128 )
183 ICD coding quality analysis of the first page of inpatient medical records in a hospital in 2021
Shen Min
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.005
Objective To analyze the ICD coding errors on the first page of inpatient medical records in a hospital in 2021, find out the causes of coding errors, and put forward continuous improvement measures to improve the quality of ICD-coding.Methods According to the filling requirements of disease diagnosis and surgery or operation in the filling specification of medical security fund settlement list, the quality control personnel of each department carried out preliminary quality control for the medical records. After the medical records were filed, the medical record coder carried out secondary quality control. Finally, the senior coding quality control personnel reviewed and summarized the ICD coding errors of each department from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, and recorded the distribution of coding error categories.Results In 2021, there were 10 860 medical records of discharged patients in each clinical department, with 1 710 wrong coding medical records, and the coding error rate was 15.75%; the proportion of major diagnostic coding errors (wrong coding, inconsistent with core treatment, inconsistent with main surgery or operation) was 8.53%; the proportion of other diagnostic coding errors (wrong coding, overstatement of other diagnosis, omission of other diagnosis) was 52.28%; the proportion of major surgery or operation coding errors (name filling error, omission, wrong coding, not corresponding to the main diagnosis) was 2.16%; other surgery or operation coding errors (wrong coding, over filling and missing)  accounted for 37.02%.Conclusion Hospital management, doctors and coders all have important impacts on the quality of ICD coding. Through continuous improvement measures, such as establishing DRG operation mechanism, carrying out bidirectional training regularly, and perfecting electronic medical record coding verification function, the error rate of ICD coding can be reduced.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 183-187 [Abstract] ( 39 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3013 KB)  ( 142 )
188 Retrospective analysis of the coding quality of International Classification of Diseases for tumors in a tertiary hospital
Guo Xusheng, Li Rengang, Xi Yue
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.06
Tumor disease coding is one of the difficulties in International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding. With the development of DRG/DIP payment, the quality of the first page of medical records is getting more and more attention. Based on the coding rule logic of International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) and CHS-DRG (1.0) of National Healthcare Security Administration, this study adopted a comprehensive quality control method of initial screening and manual review by quality control software. A retrospective quality control analysis was carried out on the first page diagnosis of 48 099 medical records in a tertiary hospital in Shanghai in 2020. The results showed that there were some problems in the first page of 203 medical records, such as wrong tumor location code, histomorphological coding error caused by interpreting without real understanding, hematological tumor histomorphological coding errors, and tumor coding errors caused by inadequate clinical communication or insufficient medical knowledge.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 188-191 [Abstract] ( 56 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3262 KB)  ( 224 )
192 Effect of the quality of the first page medical records on medicare payment by taking endoscopic therapy code as an example
Wu Youmei, Miao Yanyao, Xü Meijun, Yuan Boying
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.007
Objective To study the effect of the quality of the first page of medical records on the enrollment of medicare of DRGs.Methods With the operation code of endoscopic treatment as an example, the data of 740 patients who underwent gastrointestinal endoscopic treatment in a hospital from January 1 to December 31, 2020 were collected. The first page of medical records was checked and revised to compare the inclusion of medicare of DRG before and after the revision, and the chi-square test was used to compare the difference in medical insurance payment before and after the revision.Results Fifty-five out of 740 medical records were wrong in coding, with an error rate of 7.39%. After the revision, the average number of points paid by medicare payments increased from 75.56 to 77.47. There was statistically significant difference in DRG before and after the revision (χ2=2 013.04, P<0.05).Conclusion In the cases of endoscopic treatment of digestive tract lesions, the influence of main operation code selection errors on DRG is bigger than the influence of main diagnostic errors, and coding errors could affect the inclusion of medicare payments of DRG and the amount of medicare payments. Improving the coding quality of the first page of medical records for the medical behavior to be objectively and truly expressed, is helpful for the accurate operation of medicare payment reform.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 192-195 [Abstract] ( 44 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2556 KB)  ( 119 )
196 Investigation of residents′ satisfaction with primary medical treatment in Shandong and analysis of influencing factors
Ren Jing, Guo Hang, Hou Xiaoli, Cui Qianqian, Wang Xinzhe, Kong Yang
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.008
Objective To explore the main factors affecting the satisfaction of residents in primary medical institutions in Shandong Province, and provide references for further improving the quality of primary medical services and promoting the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system.Methods Through a survey of residents in Shandong Province, the basic information, medical institution visits, primary medical satisfaction and influencing factors and other information were acquired, and the multiple linear regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of primary medical treatment satisfaction.Results The satisfaction levels of residents of different gender, marital status, education level and occupation were significantly different with primary medical institutions (P<0.05). Among the basic medical service indicators, 22 medical service indicators, such as the setting of medical departments and the perfection of medical equipment, were positively correlated with residents′ satisfaction (P<0.001). The satisfaction levels of residents′ complaint convenience, medical environment, doctors′ technical level, the setting of medical departments and other related indicators were relatively low（P<0.001）. Doctors/nurses′ service-attitude, medication notifications, service items and other medical service indicators were factors affecting residents′ satisfaction with medical treatment in primary medical institutions.Conclusion It is necessary to improve the medical environment, rationally set up medical departments, strengthen doctor-patient communication, promote the improvement of the management level of primary medical institutions, and actively cultivate health personnel to improve the utilization of residents′ medical services and the satisfaction of primary institutions.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 196-200 [Abstract] ( 46 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3611 KB)  ( 123 )
201 Depression status and its influencing factors in urban and rural elderly in China
Liu Haixia, Yan Haosen, Li Rui, Xu Zhaoyang, Xu Mingdan
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.009
Objective To analyze the status and influencing factors of depression symptoms in urban and rural elderly in China.Methods The data were collected from the fourth round of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the 10-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10) to assess depressive symptoms of the elderly. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of depression of the elderly.Results The positive rate of depression symptoms in 7 690 elderly was 30.73%, with 21.5% in urban area and 43.0% in rural area. Compared with that of the urban elderly, the OR (95%CI) of the rural elderly was 1.515 (1.311-1.751). Compared with that of males, the OR (95%CI) of females was 1.609 (1.423-1.820). The OR (95%CI)  of the widowed elderly was 1.222 (1.052-1.419), compared with the married elderly who lived with their spouses. Compared with that of the elderly who were completely satisfied with their life, the OR (95%CI) of more satisfied, less satisfied and completely dissatisfied were 1.963 (1.472-2.614), 7.278 (5.179-10.228) and 16.922 (9.997-28.644) respectively. Compared with that of the elderly without chronic diseases, the OR (95%CI)of the elderly with chronic diseases was 1.221 (1.090-1.369). Compared with that of the illiterate, the OR (95%CI) of the elderly with junior high school education, senior high school/technical secondary school/vocational high school education, undergraduate education and above were 0.677 (0.557-0.823), 0.482 (0.370-0.626) and 0.339 (0.137-0.838) respectively. Compared with that of the elderly with sleep time ≤ 5 h, the OR (95%CI) of the elderly with sleep time of 6～9 h and ≥10 h were 0.481 (0.428-0.541) and 0.537 (0.440-0.656) respectively. Compared with that of the elderly without social activities, the OR (95%CI) of the elderly with social activities was 0.865 (0.773-0.968). The OR (95%CI) of the elderly having wage income was 0.794 (0.691-0.913).Conclusion Rural area, female, widowhood, low life satisfaction, and chronic diseases were risk factors for depression symptoms in older adults. High educational level, long sleep time, social activities, and income in the past year were protective factors for depression symptoms in the elderly. Targeted intervention measures should be put forward on the basis of accurately identifying the influencing factors of depression in urban and rural elderly.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 201-206 [Abstract] ( 45 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3594 KB)  ( 272 )
207 Analysis of detection results of common diseases among primary and secondary school students in urban area of Yantai from 2018 to 2020
Shao Xiao, Zhu Sijin, Chu Tianci, Wei Fei, Hu Naibao
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.010
Objective To understand the growth and health status of primary and secondary school students in Yantai, analyze the prevalence and change rules of common diseases in primary and secondary school students, to provide basis for relevant departments to carry out the prevention and treatment of common diseases in primary and secondary school students.Methods The physical examination data of primary and secondary school students in urban areas of Yantai from 2018 to 2020 were divided into groups according to different grades and ages. SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze the detection rates of dental caries, overweight, obesity and poor vision, and Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between age and the detection rates of overweight and obesity.Results The detection rates of dental caries, overweight, obesity and poor vision were 31.28%, 17.49%, 18.78% and 73.11%, respectively. Primary school students had the highest caries detection rate (41.41%). The overweight rate increased with the increase of age, while the obesity rate decreased. Age was moderately correlated with overweight (r=0.680, P<0.05) and obesity (r=-0.764, P<0.05). Senior high school students had the highest detection rate of poor eyesight. There were significant gender differences in the detection rates of dental caries, overweight, obesity and poor vision among primary and middle school students (P<0.001).Conclusion The common diseases of primary and secondary school students in Yantai are serious, dental caries of primary school students and poor vision of secondary school students are more prominent. Health education and health propaganda should be carried out for different students to change bad study and living habits.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 207-210 [Abstract] ( 53 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2443 KB)  ( 244 )
211 A survey on the status quo of residents′ cognition and acceptance of Internet hospitals in a district of Shanghai
Liu Xiaoqing，Yan Yuzhong， Zhao Jiangxia
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.011
Objective To understand the cognition and acceptance of Internet hospitals among residents in Pudong New District of Shanghai and provide reference and suggestions for the construction of Internet hospitals.Methods A questionnaire was designed to investigate the cognition and acceptance of Internet hospitals.  The snowball sampling method was used to conduct the questionnaire survey, through the Wenjuanxing questionnaire platform.Results The residents participating in the survey had certain cognition and experience in using Internet hospitals, 62.00% of them used Internet hospitals, and the most used service item was online appointment (90.08%). The highest educational qualification (t=10.613), age (t=-4.459), type of medical insurance (t=-2.784) and daily work connected with the Internet (t=3.720) were the factors influencing the acceptance of Internet hospitals (P<0.05). Pearson analysis showed that comparative advantage (r=0.816) and personal and environmental impact (r=0.789) were positively correlated with the Internet hospitals (P<0.001), while safety factors(r=-0.100) were negatively correlated with the Internet hospitals (P<0.05).Conclusion It is of practical significance to improve the supporting construction of Internet hospitals, give full play to the comparative advantages of Internet hospitals, create a good publicity environment, improve the supporting policies and management systems, and reduce risk factors, so as to enhance residents′ awareness and willingness to use Internet hospitals.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 211-215 [Abstract] ( 36 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3737 KB)  ( 130 )
216 Investigation analysis of clinical blood quality control indexes in hospitals of Ningbo
Zhong Fade, Luo Lin
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.012

Objective To retrospectively investigate the quality control indexes of clinical blood in Ningbo hospitals from 2019 to 2021.Methods The Questionnaire of Blood Quality Control Indicators for Clinical Use in Ningbo Hospitals was designed by ourselves, and the relevant data of blood use in 88 hospitals were collected, including blood use in hospitals and blood quality control indicators for clinical use, etc. SPSS 22.0 software was used for statistical analysis.Results From 2019 to 2021, the clinical use of red blood cells was 424 928.00 U, frozen plasma 385 804.10 U and platelets 45 200.70 U in Ningbo Hospitals. The qualified rate of clinical blood transfusion application form was 97.79%, the blood type review rate of blood samples was 95.66%, the indoor quality control rate of blood transfusion compatibility test project was 91.05%, the participation rate of interquality assessment project of blood transfusion compatibility test room was 94.08%, the rate of autologous blood transfusion of surgical patients was 48.93%, and the rate of blood transfusion of discharged patients was 4.38%. There were 1.16 professional and technical personnel for blood transfusion per 1 000 units, and 4.74 cases of adverse blood transfusion reactions were reported per 1 000 blood transfusions. The blood use volume of the first and second operating tables was 0.03 U, the blood use volume of the third and fourth operating tables was 0.16 U, the blood use volume of the operating tables was 0.07 U, and the per capita blood use volume of discharged patients was 0.12 U. The per capita blood use volume of patients undergoing transfusion was 2.38 U, and the per time blood use volume patients undergoing transfusion was 1.35 U. The proportions of graduates, undergraduates, junior college and below in the blood transfusion department was 5.80%, 60.78% and 33.42%, respectively(χ2=55.85, P<0.01), and there were statistically  significant differences among different levels of hospitals concerning-academic-qualifications. The proportions of senior title, intermediate title, primary title and below were 19.61%, 39.88% and  40.61%,respectively, and there were statistically significant differences among different levels of hospitals concerning professional titles (χ2=10.69, P<0.01). The proportions of doctors, technicians and nurses were 3.59%, 94.48% and 1.93%, respectively, and there were statistically significant differences among different levels of hospitals concerning specialties (χ2=16.12, P<0.01).Conclusion The average blood use volume per operating table and the average blood use volume of discharged patients in Ningbo are lower than those in the whole country. There are some problems in the blood transfusion department such as the shortage of licensed doctors and transfusion talents. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of talent team and improve the blood quality of clinical use.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 216-219 [Abstract] ( 34 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2564 KB)  ( 163 )
220 Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction of regional health human resource allocation
Lin Jianchao， Sun Huanhuan，Ruan Weiliang
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.013
Objective To discuss the application of exponential smoothing method in forecasting the allocation of regional health human resources.Methods  Based on the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents in a city from 2011 to 2020, SPSS 23.0 was used to establish the exponential smoothing model, Which was used to predict and evaluate the number of physicians per thousand permanent residents of the city from 2021 to 2023.Results The  R2 value of the model constructed by the non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend was the largest, and the  R2 value was 0.988, RMSE was 0.053, and MAPE was 1.495, which was the best fitting model.Conclusion The non-seasonal Holt′s linear trend model can better fit the regional health human resource allocation and can be used to predict the regional health human resource allocation.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 220-222 [Abstract] ( 36 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2050 KB)  ( 82 )
223 Analysis of health education ability of obstetrical nurses and its influencing factors
Chen Yanyan, Chen Jieqiong, Wang Qinxu, Wang Xiaomei
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.014
Objective To investigate the health education ability of obstetric nurses and its influencing factors.Methods From March 2021 to June 2021, nurses working in the obstetrics wards of three tertiary hospitals in Wenzhou were selected as the research objects, and a questionnaire survey was conducted by using Caring Ability Inventory(CAI), Rahim Organizational Conflict Inventory-Ⅱ(ROCI-Ⅱ) and Evaluation Scale for Health Education Ability of Obstetric Nurses.Results Among 270 cases of obstetric nurses, the total average score of the health education ability questionnaire was (97.56±12.87) points; age, education background, length of time working in obstetrics, with psychological consultant certificate or not, professional obstetric nurses or not, the humanistic care ability and the conflict handling mode of the nurses, were the main influencing factors of health education ability of the obstetric nurses (P<0.05).Conclusion The health education ability of obstetric nurses is good, but their skills and abilities need to be strengthened. Nursing managers need to strengthen the construction of the professional system of health education for obstetric nurses, and promote the professionalization of health education ability training for obstetric nurses.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 223-227 [Abstract] ( 43 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (3026 KB)  ( 87 )
228 Current situation of the construction of electronic medical record system in Guangdong Province and its influence on the quality of medical records
Lu Jianjun，Xin Ziyi， Yu Junrong，Xiong Ying
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.015
Objective To make a cross-sectional survey of the construction of electronic medical records and the quality of medical records in public hospitals in Guangdong Province with field research, and to evaluate the influence of the construction of electronic medical record system on the quality of medical records.Methods Thirty-seven experts in the fields of medical record quality control, medical record management and hospital information from the Guangdong Provincial Health Commission Affair Center and 18 tertiary hospitals in Guangdong Province formed 10 groups to assess the levels of electronic medical record system and the quality of inpatient medical records of 60 hospitals in 20 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province. Medical records were divided into groups according to the electronic medical record rating and the informatization status of quality control, and the quality of medical records between groups were compared.Results Two hundred and thirtynine medical records from 23 tertiary hospitals were sampled in this survey, with a grade A rate of 97.49%; 390 inpatient medical records from 37 secondary hospitals were sampled, with a grade A rate of 97.18%. The electronic medical record system of 23 tertiary hospitals were rated at level 3 and above, and there was no hospital with electronic medical record system rating of level 5 among 37 secondary hospitals. Manual integrated information system quality control was adopted in 69.6% of the tertiary hospitals, and in 27.0% of the secondary hospitals. The analysis showed that there was no statistical difference in the medical record quality scores of different -electronic-medical record system rating groups (H=1.113,P>0.05 ), while the medical record quality score of the manual combined information system group was higher than that of the manual quality control group (Z=-2.894,P<0.01 ).Conclusion The informatization of medical record quality control can effectively improve the quality of medical records, and it is necessary for hospitals to take it as an important part of the construction of electronic medical record system.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 228-231 [Abstract] ( 60 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2374 KB)  ( 162 )
232 Statistics of unplanned readmission and the application of SAS
Wang Qingliang, Zhang Yongyuan, Li Xiangyi, Han Hui
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.016
Unplanned readmission is closely related to medical quality, and statistical analysis of its data can provide objective support for medical management and clinical decision-making. However, clear statistical connotation and establishment of scientific and standard statistical process are the preconditions for full application of its statistical results. Based on the existing material, the present study firstly sorted out the statistical connotation of unplanned readmission within 31 days of discharge into four aspects and standardized the expressions, and proposed an adjusted statistical method for unplanned readmission rate. Then we used the international authoritative statistical analysis system (SAS 9.4 version) to divide the statistical process into five steps: data import, sorting, cleaning, screening, and statistics. And prxmatch, lag functions and proc sql process step and so on were used to write a SAS statistical program that was logically rigorous, easy to understand, and could be directly used for references. Scientific, standardized and procedural statistics help improve statistical efficiency, ensure the accuracy, precision and comparability of statistical results, and promote data mining and utilization.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 232-236 [Abstract] ( 58 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2898 KB)  ( 273 )
237 Predicting hospital surgery quantity based on ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model in R language
Cao Bingyan
DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2022.03.017
Objective To establish the ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model based on R language to forecast surgery-amount, and provide basis for hospital managers to carry out fine management and scientific decision-making.Methods R4.1.3 software was used to build ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model. Surgery amount from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2020 was used for ARIMA multiplicative seasonal modeling, surgery amount from Jan. 2021 to Dec. 2021 was used to evaluate model forecast efficacy, and the surgery amount in the first half of 2022 was forecast through extrapolation.Results The hospital′s surgery amount showed an uptrend on the whole. February was the low period, and July and August were the peak periods. ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,0)-12-model was built. The model′s residual series was white noise, and the MAPE was 7.71%, which indicated that the forecast effect was nice and the model could be used for model extrapolation forecast.Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,0)-12-model worked well for the forecast of the hospital′s surgery amount and provided reliable basis for hospitals to allocate resources reasonably.
2022 Vol. 29 (3): 237-240 [Abstract] ( 38 ) HTML (1 KB)  PDF (2998 KB)  ( 63 )
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