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| Analysis of laboratory indicators predicting the risk of death for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome |
| SHAO Zhiying1, SUNLinlin1*, LI Xiaodan1, SUN Rongling1, SHI Jun2 |
1 Intensive care unit, YantaiQishan Hospital, Yantai264000, Shandong, P.R.China;
2 Department of Infectious Diseases, Shandong Provincial Hospital |
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Abstract Objective To analyze the correlation between laboratory indexes and prognosis in patients with severe fever and thrombocytopenia syndrome, and to establish a death model for verification. Methods Cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome were collected. The case data from January 2011 to December 2015 were used as the modeling group to establish the death risk model. The case data from January 2016 to December 2016 were used as the validation group to verify the death model. The first time 11 laboratory examination results were selected after admission to ICU for analysis. Through ROC curve, laboratory indexes with area under the curve (AUC)＞0.6 were selected to determine the best cutoff value of each index. Through the logistic regression analysis, the laboratory indexes that had influence on the prognosis were selected, and the original β value was assigned to them. At the same time, after the β value was rounded, the risk model was established and verified, and the sensitivity and specificity of different total scores were analyzed.Results The AUC of ALT, AST, CKMB, Cr, UA, BUM, Ca2+, K+ and Na+ were all >0.60. Logistic regression analysis showed that the increase of AST, K+, and BUN was directly related to the predicted death, respectively. The area under ROC curve was 0.908 and 0.907 respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 97.6% and 95.2%.Conclusion The simplified scores of AST, K and BUN are of high value in predicting the risk of death in patients with severe fever and thrombocytopenia syndrome. Patients with a total score≥3 should be highly alert to the clinicians.
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Received: 28 June 2019
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